Serie A Predictions 2026-27: Title, Top 4 and Relegation Probabilities
ProbaPredict's model gives FC Internazionale Milano a 56% chance of winning the Serie A title, ahead of AS Roma (20%) and Como 1907 (10%). Parma Calcio 1913 are the most likely to go down (65%). Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 305 matches, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:36 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 7 | 19 | 81.2 | 56% | 94% | 0% |
| 2 |  | 8 | 18 | 74.5 | 20% | 81% | 0% |
| 3 |  | 8 | 17 | 71.0 | 10% | 66% | <1% |
| 4 |  | 8 | 22 | 66.8 | 5% | 44% | 0% |
| 5 |  | 7 | 15 | 66.2 | 4% | 42% | <1% |
| 6 |  | 7 | 11 | 63.4 | 2% | 30% | <1% |
| 7 |  | 8 | 11 | 60.9 | 1% | 21% | <1% |
| 8 |  | 7 | 9 | 58.5 | 1% | 14% | <1% |
| 9 |  | 7 | 13 | 50.5 | <1% | 3% | 4% |
| 10 |  | 8 | 8 | 48.9 | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| 11 |  | 8 | 8 | 47.5 | <1% | 1% | 8% |
| 12 |  | 8 | 13 | 47.5 | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| 13 |  | 8 | 13 | 45.3 | <1% | <1% | 11% |
| 14 |  | 7 | 4 | 41.7 | <1% | <1% | 23% |
| 15 |  | 8 | 7 | 39.7 | 0% | <1% | 30% |
| 16 |  | 7 | 3 | 39.5 | 0% | <1% | 32% |
| 17 |  | 7 | 4 | 39.0 | 0% | <1% | 34% |
| 18 |  | 7 | 9 | 37.9 | 0% | <1% | 40% |
| 19 |  | 7 | 4 | 37.7 | 0% | <1% | 40% |
| 20 |  | 8 | 4 | 32.8 | 0% | 0% | 65% |
Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:36 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261025 · Download CSV
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 20 | 28 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| 10 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| 4 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | ||||||
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | |||||||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | |||||||
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | |||||||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | ||||||||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | ||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 19 | 33 |
Biggest movers this week
Biggest movers since Sun, 18 Oct 2026: Como 1907 up 5 points to 10% for the title; US Lecce down 20 points to 40% to go down.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Upcoming Serie A match predictions
- Atalanta vs Frosinone predictionSun, 25 Oct 2026Atalanta 56% · Over 2.5 56%
- Genoa vs Venezia predictionSun, 25 Oct 2026Genoa 39% · Over 2.5 46%
- Lecce vs Juventus predictionSun, 25 Oct 2026Juventus 54% · Over 2.5 37%
- Udinese vs Milan predictionSun, 25 Oct 2026Milan 48% · Over 2.5 49%
- Sassuolo vs Lazio predictionTue, 27 Oct 2026Lazio 42% · Over 2.5 50%
- Roma vs Cagliari predictionTue, 27 Oct 2026Roma 68% · Over 2.5 50%
- Torino vs Como 1907 predictionTue, 27 Oct 2026Como 1907 47% · Over 2.5 48%
- Milan vs Bologna predictionWed, 28 Oct 2026Milan 52% · Over 2.5 48%
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Serie A?
- FC Internazionale Milano (56%), followed by AS Roma (20%) and Como 1907 (10%), from 10,000 simulations run on Sun, 25 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Serie A?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Parma Calcio 1913 (65%), Genoa CFC (40%), US Lecce (40%) as the most likely. 3 teams go down automatically.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:36 UK.